Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 22 2025 23:05:48

AWUS01 KWNH 222305
FFGMPD
NMZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222304Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
impacting central and eastern NM over the next couple of hours.
Some flash flooding impacts may occur over especially portions of
the Sacramento Mountains where there are sensitive burn scar
locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a couple of bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
moving rather progressively off to the east across central NM.
This activity is advancing east in conjunction with shortwave
energy traversing the southern Rockies and interacting with a
relatively convergent, moist and unstable boundary layer pooled
across central and eastern NM.

SBCAPE values are locally near 1000 J/kg with PWs across the
region running upwards of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal.
Some shear is noted overhead with the belt of stronger shortwave
energy nearby, and this is favoring some loose organization of the
convection with bands of multicell activity.

Despite the progressive nature of the convection, this activity
will be capable of bringing heavy rainfall rates which will soon
impact the Sacramento Mountains and portions of the Lincoln
National Forest where there are multiple sensitive burn scar
locations. This includes the Blue 2, South Fork, Salt and McBride
burn scar complex, and notably near and adjacent to Ruidoso.

Rainfall amounts of as much as a 0.50 inch in 15 minutes will be
possible, with some spotty storm totals of up to 1 inch where any
repeating cell-activity occurs through early this evening. These
rains may result in there being some burn scar flash flooding
impacts as a result over the next 1 to 2 hours until the activity
passes off to the east.

Orrison

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DZ3fjg!6QEWH4X4cJCACaXajCgebzBFdObj0PLsGvdgycDMbAYD4-eeJ0khZyQnuz-wzT0vx6x3=
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ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34480446 33940410 33560422 33140479 32850604=20
            32880675 33110718 33440732 33800714 34270620=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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