Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2117
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 22 2025 20:36:10

ACUS11 KWNS 222036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222035=20
KSZ000-COZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...western Kansas into east-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222035Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over western
Kansas, with additional development into eastern Colorado later this
afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain, but probably needed by early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the central Plains, as
cooling aloft with an upper trough overspreads the area, steepening
lapse rates. A cluster of storms has already formed along a
stationary front over northwest Kansas, and isolated hail may
develop.

Visible satellite also shows a cu field extending westward into
eastern Colorado beneath the cirrus. Given the relatively early time
of day, storm coverage is likely to increase as heating continues.

During the evening, southeast winds at 850 mb will support lift and
theta-e advection. Although midlevel winds will be weak, ample
instability and lift should result in cells eventually merging into
a propagating cluster later in the evening with wind threat.

...Jewell/Smith.. 09/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4u6lcJeAytjtPbGC3aMO-rDNh4OIMchvOHDwHl7DHhg0z1FvWcbKOY0yfnmR83ipLyRAh5yKN=
3MY6sWoH8cFtIsUHfE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39090316 39150255 39320122 39500035 39369983 38679960
            38350004 38250062 38250201 38230294 38480323 38790337
            39090316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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