Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 22 2025 19:53:12 ACUS02 KWNS 221953 SWODY2 SPC AC 221951 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ....Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ....Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ....Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ...Weinman.. 09/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .