Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 22 2025 11:25:08 ACUS03 KWNS 221125 SWODY3 SPC AC 221124 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning. ....South Texas... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. ....Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning. This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Bentley.. 09/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .