Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 22 2025 08:35:10

ACUS48 KWNS 220835
SWOD48
SPC AC 220833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on
Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low
will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold
front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s
dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but
it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level
southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization
if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it
appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from
the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe
threat is not anticipated.

On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere
near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible
along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on
Friday night.

In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much
of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather
probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level
moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and
keep severe weather potential low.

...Bentley.. 09/22/2025

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