Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2113
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 22:48:06

ACUS11 KWNS 212248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212247=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

Valid 212247Z - 220045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue
propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR.
Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding
multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into
extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has
proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and
0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS
data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating
large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County,
and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually
strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should
continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including
the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest
storms.

...Darrow.. 09/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4uzp8w7cObZ6WG7_TiVbD46FQUxO9qTfaSrle1GJcpmbnRVTpB0aE0ZOE-3ezetPUXRBc5yrx=
D0fz7S8PCiKZAOwtb8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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