Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2112
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 21:44:04

ACUS11 KWNS 212144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212143=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-212315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Missouri into central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212143Z - 212315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with merging storms over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse-cellular and multicellular storms,
which have been ongoing for the past few hours, are showing signs of
merging. Furthermore, increasing lightning trends suggests that some
of these storms may be intensifying. Vertical wind shear is poor,
though up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE precede the clustering storms per 21Z
mesoanalysis. As such, the amalgamation of storms may result in
strong enough cold pool mergers and subsequent outflow to support a
damaging gust or two through the remainder of the afternoon.

...Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7InhNvLISR41noDvv8leWfdCnPGYeBSeFY47ja7fAiLz0fBBRJtNWP48z9GRwQfX7iYJo8IPB=
q6yamrjo2NuilgpiZ0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39469303 40099119 40289022 40118966 39808917 39418896
            39008925 38828970 38719025 38569087 38499134 38479189
            39469303=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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