Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 19:28:33

ACUS03 KWNS 211928
SWODY3
SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the
Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across
southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern
Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are
possible by the afternoon.

....Discussion...
A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen
as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this
feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms
will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of
Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River.

Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the
start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The
low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on
Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind
risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can
occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the
damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon.

A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near
the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late
morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear
should be in place will support supercell structures, although a
mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with
potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added
with this outlook to account for this risk.

...Thornton.. 09/21/2025

$$

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