Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 08:58:21 AWUS01 KWNH 210858 FFGMPD KSZ000-211330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Central Kansas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 210900Z - 211330Z SUMMARY...A few scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible as cells capable of 1.5"/hr may repeat/train over the next few hours. A spot or two of 2-3" totals will near FFG, suggesting isolated localized flash flooding is possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a very broad area of large scale diffluence across much of Kansas, as a strong 90kt 250mb jet turns southeast out of CO into NW TX; while a digging northern stream trough and shortwave crossing west-central NEB provide large scale divergence ascent across KS. Toward the surface, a poorly defined surface boundary extends from the Kansas City Metro southwest toward a low near Wichita, then extends due west before turning north across eastern CO. Broad southerly flow across the southern Plains remains about 20-25kts providing moderate moisture flux, with the nose of the moisture axis centered along 98W. CIRA LPW shows the enhanced pockets of moisture from surface (Tds in the low to mid 60s throughout KS/OK), overlap with maxima across the 850-700mb layer along the KS/OK border and 700-500mb in central OK...resulting in a 1.5" total PWat corridor toward the area of concern fluxed on the LLJ. Steeper mid-level lapse rates has provided broad area of conditionally unstable air with 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE across the area of concern. However, maximized convergence has resulted in two west to east moisture convergence axes; the first lower, just near the boundary layer has activated scattered, narrow updrafts with a few stronger isolated near surface rooted embedded cells across SW KS that have greater cloud depth an moisture availability. This, while speed convergence and weak FGEN ascent could tap elevated unstable air near 800mb in proximity to I-70 corridor. As such, regional RADAR shows greater convective vigor over a broader area, further north. Rates up to 1.25-1.5"/hr are probable with the elevated cells. Both areas have favorable orientation to the deeper west to easterly flow and with solid outflow aloft, should maintain on the modest remaining instability for the next few hours. Given repeating/training potential, widely scattered totals of 3"+ are possible. Hydrologically, FFG values are 1.5"/hr and about 2.5"/3hrs. However, there are areas of recent heavier rainfall that have likely rebounded a bit too quickly as noted in NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil ratios in the 50-60% range from Hodgeman to Stafford counties and further south across Pratt, Barber, Kingman and Harper counties from last night's complex. Given the rates and cell orientation, FFG exceedance and localized flash flooding is considered possible, until southerly moisture flux convergence becomes too weak to maintain convective vigor Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ZkBD8gzxo8ijy8VPzOzBVt_tpjly5t5uMLSvjb012_CRZ9Ni9J3wsQDVJbrSZBf7nHI= m0F4kJOLSHAMUStTLGYuhh8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39289872 39279787 39249743 39039690 38709640=20 38359624 37979643 37699706 37569743 37409810=20 37279902 37379974 37770046 38240049 38640018=20 39069969=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .