Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 07:08:59

AWUS01 KWNH 210708
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-211130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Northwest and north-central Arkansas...Far
Southern Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210715Z - 211130Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCS continues to be fueled by upstream unstable,
warm-advection for a few more hours.  Additional 2-3" totals over
saturated grounds will continue to pose localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows a mature MCS with forward
propagating outflow boundary convection along the southern flank
of the complex from Madison to Marion counties in N AR.  Resultant
Meso-high is reducing residency for the squally line, however, VWP
continues to depict favorable 15-25kt inflow from the southwest
(out of NE OK), where the remaining pool of moderately unstable
air, higher low level theta-E air resides.  RADAR denotes this
with the upwind edge lifting northeast across far NW AR,
potentially back across the most saturated zones of SW MO and NW
AR.  This while remaining in fairly diffluent flow aloft at the
splitting of the upper-level jet and right entrance of a 50kt
speed max across far SE KS into western MO; these features will
help to maintain the upwind WAA for a few more hours, but
divergence and remaining unstable air should slowly reduce the
convective vigor of the overall complex in the next 2-3 hours.=20=20

Still, ample deep layer moisture and 1000-1250 J/kg of unstable
air with the strength of flux will maintain some rainfall
efficiency toward 1.5"/hr.   As deeper layer steering flow backs
from westerly to southwesterly, current orientation of the outflow
boundary may yield some short-term training as well, mainly across
saturated areas from this round, but also earlier Saturday
morning.  An additional 2-3" locally (particulalry along the
upwind edge of the complex) will continue to pose a localized
flash flooding risk through the late overnight period (3-4 hrs).=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-8EvAbxrjlXTy_-lIO4sDca2_KC1sDBToAAu5h3GJYPj3pBIV-MYRMusvaMuUyNTiovg=
UacmOnKFKUi2p27rH1SeGvU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36879333 36719223 36529136 36159109 35659117=20
            35429171 35309264 35389383 35629431 36389445=20
            36789396=20

=3D =3D =3D
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