Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 07:04:41

ACUS03 KWNS 210704
SWODY3
SPC AC 210703

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms are possible from the southern
Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

....Discussion...
A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere across eastern Oklahoma on
Tuesday morning. A moist airmass with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
will be in place downstream of these thunderstorms. Only modest
weakening of the low-level jet will occur Tuesday morning and
therefore, this MCS should remain through much of the day. If
sufficient destabilization can occur across Arkansas, northern
Mississippi and western TN/KY, some marginal damaging wind threat
could accompany this MCS as it moves east through the morning and
into the afternoon. Farther west, moderate destabilization is
expected across the ArkLaTex and north Texas.

A cold front will strengthen/sharpen across Oklahoma and move
southeast through the day. Convergence along the front, combined
with weak ascent amid falling mid-level heights, will support storm
development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Where stronger mid-level flow
(40 to 45 knots) is present, shear will support supercells. However,
it is unclear whether this stronger mid-level flow will overlap the
most favorable zone for storms. Timing and amplitude of the
mid-level trough remain uncertain at this time. If this stronger
flow overspreads the most favorable thermodynamic zone where storms
are anticipated, a Slight Risk may be justified in the ArkLaTex, but
model spread remains too large at this time.

...Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

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