Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 21 2025 01:02:26 ACUS01 KWNS 210102 SWODY1 SPC AC 210100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central Plains this evening. ....South-central Plains... A few strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from the TX Panhandle into western/northern OK. Moderate buoyancy remains in place across areas that have not been convectively overturned, while deep-layer shear is marginally sufficient for briefly organized storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail. Enhanced SRH is still in place near a remnant outflow across northeast OK (as noted on the KINX VWP), and there still a window of opportunity for a supercell or two within this regime, which could pose a threat of a brief tornado and large hail. Some clustering is possible later this evening across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, and also across parts of the Ozarks, associated with separate branches of a modest nocturnal low-level jet. Some severe threat could persist into late evening, before convection becomes increasingly elevated overnight. ....Mid MS Valley into lower MI... A storm cluster across western lower MI has recently produced strong gusts, with other isolated strong storms noted from western IN into IL. Isolated strong storms may persist into late evening across this region within a modestly unstable environment, though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time. ....Parts of KS overnight... Guidance generally suggests that convection will increase overnight and spread eastward from northwest into central KS. MUCAPE near/above 1000 J/kg could support a few strong storms, but generally weak effective shear and modest midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit the organized severe threat. ...Dean.. 09/21/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .