Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 20 2025 19:30:24

ACUS03 KWNS 201930
SWODY3
SPC AC 201929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

....Central and Southern Plains...
A substantial midlevel wave will track southeastward across the
central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains on Monday. In the
low-levels, a surface front will extend from NE southward across
western KS to an evolving triple point in the vicinity of southwest
KS. In response to the approaching wave, strong low-level positive
theta-e advection beneath a robust EML will yield a strongly
unstable air mass across parts of the southern and central Plains.
As midlevel height falls preceding the wave impinge on the surface
boundary and triple point, inhibition at the base of the EML should
gradually erode and support widely scattered thunderstorms by late
afternoon.

Around 40-50 kt of off-boundary deep-layer shear should initially
support semi-discrete supercells with a risk of large hail and
severe wind gusts across parts of western KS into the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
farther north along the surface front into NE, though deep-layer
shear will be weaker here in comparison. With time, thunderstorms
will spread/develop east-southeastward across KS and western/central
OK into a strengthening southerly low-level jet during the
evening/overnight hours. This should promote a continuation of
embedded supercells and upscale growth into one or more
southeastward-moving MCSs. Severe hail and swath of wind damage will
be possible with this convective evolution.

...Weinman.. 09/20/2025

$$

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