Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 20 2025 16:16:52 ACUS01 KWNS 201616 SWODY1 SPC AC 201615 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. ....South-Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a couple of small thunderstorm clusters over parts of the Ozarks into northeast OK and mostly clear skies farther west and southwest over OK into the TX Panhandle. Surface analysis places a zone of outflow extending from west-central AR northwestward into north-central OK. The primary front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast by mid-late afternoon across the Marginal Risk. A relatively non-descript upper pattern, north of a flattened upper ridge, features a couple of very minor perturbations slowly moving east across the central High Plains into the mid MS Valley, to the south of more amplified disturbances over the upper MS Valley and ND. Weak capping and the aforementioned seasonably moist airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing near the front and outflow late this afternoon into the evening. Diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by mid evening owing to the loss of heating. ....Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper trough centered near the IA/WI/MN/IL border will continue to slowly migrate east across WI/northern IL today. Similar to areas farther southwest over the south-central Plains, a seasonably moist will undergo some heating in areas void of thicker cloud cover and aid in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing over WI according to forecast soundings. Weak 0-6 km shear (i.e., < 20 kt) should temper updraft organization and limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, a couple of strong gusts or small hail may occur with the more vigorous storms this afternoon. ...Smith/Wendt.. 09/20/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .