Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 20 2025 00:46:47 ACUS01 KWNS 200046 SWODY1 SPC AC 200045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ....01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ...Kerr.. 09/20/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .