Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 20 2025 00:27:25

AWUS01 KWNH 200027
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-200426-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Areas affected...central/southern New Mexico, southern through
northwestern Arizona, far southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200026Z - 200426Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should continue for a few
more hours (through 04Z/10p MDT).

Discussion...Isolated, deep moist convection continues to drift
slowly eastward across the discussion area.  Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates are noted with the most dominant and slowest-moving
activity (as estimated per MRMS).  These rain rates have
occasionally fallen on locally sensitive areas (i.e., burn scars,
low-lying areas), posing a risk of excessive runoff and flash
flooding.  Isolated flash flood potential continues in the near
term.

Models/observations suggest that most of the ongoing activity
should be diurnally driven, with a downward trend in both
intensity and coverage expected through the early overnight hours.
 Most of the convective threat should diminish through 04Z.  Flash
flood potential should also persist through that timeframe, while
becoming even more isolated thereafter.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_KOjLdmu83W7PgRi4gei56feCI1UhDrD3AiVbUx3ZrDlcV7TmuLs6ZvdQQeGZewXro3t=
Aano8mpyFA5NxYRJahdQhdg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...LUB...MAF...PSR...SLC...
TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   37731346 36941045 35841103 34451128 33890776=20
            34720650 34660422 33790297 30800370 30600515=20
            31450757 31030849 31471143 32441369 34761537=20
            36691580 37671447=20

=3D =3D =3D
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