Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 19 2025 19:28:43

ACUS03 KWNS 191928
SWODY3
SPC AC 191927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great
Plains and the Ohio Valley on Sunday, though organized severe
thunderstorm potential remains uncertain.

....Discussion...
A compact midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Upper
Midwest on Sunday, while a broader large-scale trough encompasses
much of the central CONUS. Several embedded shortwave impulses (some
convectively induced/enhanced) will track eastward within the zonal
midlevel flow across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Plains and
northern Plains through the period. Given the low-amplitude nature
of these impulses (and large differences in timing/evolution among
model guidance), organized severe thunderstorm potential remains
uncertain at this time. Nevertheless, a moist/moderately unstable
air mass will be in place from the southern/central Plains eastward
into parts of the OH Valley, and given the subtle areas of
large-scale lift and locally enhanced midlevel flow, a broad area of
strong-thunderstorm potential is evident. As the details regarding
timing/evolution of the embedded shortwave troughs and related
destabilization become clearer, one or more Marginal Risk areas may
be warranted over the central/southern Plains and the Ohio Valley.

...Weinman.. 09/19/2025

$$

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