Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 19 2025 17:31:45 ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ....Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will move gradually eastward across the Upper Midwest through the forecast period, while being reinforced by an upstream midlevel impulse moving southeastward from the northern Plains into the base of the trough. While midlevel flow accompanying the trough will be modest, a broad area of DCVA will promote scattered thunderstorms from WI southward toward the Lower OH Valley. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out where PBL lapse rates diurnally steepen in cloud breaks, poor midlevel lapse rates (and marginal buoyancy) should limit the severe risk -- especially given modest deep-layer flow/shear. Farther south, a warm/moist air mass will be in place along/immediately south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across southern/central KS. In the wake of an overnight convective cluster moving eastward out of southeastern KS/northeastern OK, weak low-level warm advection atop the residual outflow and quasi-stationary front should promote afternoon thunderstorms -- focused across northern OK into far southern KS. Modestly enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow (closer to the midlevel trough) will conditionally support a couple strong storms over northeastern OK, though uncertainty regarding PBL recovery behind morning convection limits confidence in the risk at this time. If confidence in PBL recovery increases, a Marginal Risk could be warranted here. Steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy across north-central into northwest OK may also promote a couple strong storms, but weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit the risk of organized storms. ...Weinman.. 09/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .