Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2100
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 19 2025 01:44:09

ACUS11 KWNS 190144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190143=20
MOZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Areas affected...Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614...

Valid 190143Z - 190315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is decreasing across Missouri this evening.
Even so, a few gusts remain possible for the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Robust frontal convection that spread across western
into central MO has shown significant weakening over the last hour.
This activity has overturned the primary corridor of instability and
only a narrow zone of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along the
eastern fringes of ww614. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a very
stable rain-cooled profile, and moisture/instability is considerably
less near the MO/IL border. For these reasons current weakening
trends are expected to continue and a new watch will not be issued.

...Darrow.. 09/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5OkBYq-khPkydtzxlxNGmVvT8A2gwOQatQvgMGud5gAdheb74DsZp_oqACjJBwKSHUNkDUWJS=
SMAAhenV7GEljJwnzg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36809233 38419223 39599269 39839196 38829132 36819154
            36809233=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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