Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 19 2025 00:39:39 ACUS01 KWNS 190039 SWODY1 SPC AC 190038 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ....01Z Update... ....Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ....Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ....Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ...Kerr.. 09/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .