Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2099
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 18 2025 23:04:07

ACUS11 KWNS 182304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182303=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Areas affected...Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614...

Valid 182303Z - 190100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it
spreads east this evening.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east
across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a
weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of
robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County
MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating
through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe
hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is
seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a
result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal
convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614.

...Darrow.. 09/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!73nbX4-veTty-h6wOLJwsuDNwqoZps26xe--tKH2QpPAzgZPCxMNpQv6OP5Jyh5ZgTtyF-K15=
nz_KK98ARZ9buHwRs4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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