Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2098
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 18 2025 19:49:35

ACUS11 KWNS 181949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181949=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Missouri and far southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181949Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
while spreading/developing eastward this afternoon into the evening,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. It is
unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and
environmental trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Within the base of a vertically stacked cyclone over
the northern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a compact
shortwave trough and accompanying MCV moving east-northeastward
across eastern KS. The leading edge of associated midlevel height
falls/large-scale ascent -- demarcated by a shallow convective band
moving across eastern KS -- will continue spreading
east-northeastward across western MO through the afternoon. Here,
differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints along the
eastern edge of the convective band and related cloud debris will
promote a gradual increase in thunderstorms (aided by the glancing
large-scale ascent).=20

Moderate pre-convective surface-based buoyancy and strengthening
midlevel southwesterlies peripheral to the shortwave trough (around
30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized
cells/clusters. Initial cellular/discrete storms will pose a risk of
marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, the
parallel orientation of the deep-layer flow/shear to the axis of
low/mid-level forcing may favor localized upscale growth with time,
leading to primarily a damaging-wind risk. Given the somewhat
marginal deep-layer flow/shear, it is unclear if a watch will be
needed, though convective and environmental trends are being
monitored.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!46dJhkA8gQlHBXh8bK7qSABbqYonW6riuVXNcvUKFHzWB-roSlNyRmSG_J4VGXZaJxBiAfvu7=
z_FhCMDrAIbEP6Gqek$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37449483 38149477 39089438 39759375 40099310 40109239
            39819204 38509210 37229247 36749298 36519370 36579413
            36789444 37449483=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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