Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2096
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 18 2025 18:42:07

ACUS11 KWNS 181842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181841=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern OK...northeast TX...western
AR...and far southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181841Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated pulse-severe storms are possible through the
afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally
damaging gusts and sporadic, marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
within broadly confluent low-level flow extending from northwest AR
across southeast OK, with a focus over higher terrain features.
While this activity is generally displaced from the stronger
midlevel southwesterlies attendant to a shortwave trough traversing
KS, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing amid middle/upper 60s
dewpoints is yielding a favorable environment for pulse-severe
storms. Locally damaging gusts and sporadic, marginally severe hail
will be possible with the stronger storms through the afternoon.
Given the sporadic/mostly disorganized storm mode, a watch is not
expected here.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5ecszNGcw0RXHUdMLpEH65RIc8BWw1aq1q5j92ULA_yK989MMNtqaXSK4kE35T0K6YW4J-Xh6=
9jFcCyeNtR_MDOoiCg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34319702 34729658 36159475 36559402 36659351 36559270
            36179240 35679233 34729302 33609409 33309472 33189537
            33269625 33629697 34049716 34319702=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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