Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 17 2025 17:32:20 ACUS02 KWNS 171732 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ....Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ....Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ....Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ...Dean.. 09/17/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .