Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 17 2025 08:00:58

ACUS48 KWNS 170800
SWOD48
SPC AC 170759

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper
troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through
the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the
control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the
evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and
into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500
mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger
large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in
the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast
across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing
severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the
second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned
uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may
experience any increasing risk.

...Leitman.. 09/17/2025

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