Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 17 2025 03:51:40

AWUS01 KWNH 170351
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-170700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...western/central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170349Z - 170700Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving thunderstorms will continue at least a
localized flash flood threat over western IA over the next few
hours with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared imagery was continuing to show
cooling cloud tops over the past 30-45 minutes over western IA
where an outflow boundary was being overrun by a 10-20 kt low
level jet. Aloft, deeper layer mean wind speeds were weak,
supporting slow cell motions over IA with MRMS derived rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ inches in an hour since 00Z. While the stronger
upper level forcing and low level jet magnitude were located to
the west across NE, a weaker branch of the low level jet extended
over eastern NE into western/central IA into the upper MS Valley,
proving sufficient for overrunning and scattered low moving storms
where MLCAPE ranged from 500-1500 J/kg via 03Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Continued areas of slow moving thunderstorms will continue
at least a localized threat of flash flooding over the next 2-4
hours with increasing convective inhibition possibly lowering the
threat after 07Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_qaWfoF4k1_2qc5TOW7O4StwE49Ae9_97v_RYBCjEx16i3qswK5RMSCf9UWDli2oBd-n=
3HzGmDGx1rCE58mwutbqofc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43439448 43189370 42369300 41269400 40999576=20
            41349626 42109652 42559627 43019587 43379520=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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