Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 17 2025 03:26:01

AWUS01 KWNH 170325
FFGMPD
IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...northern KS into central/eastern NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170324Z - 170810Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible from northern KS into central/eastern NE through 08Z. 1-2
in/hr rates within training are expected.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery showed ongoing thunderstorms along
the western KS/NE border into east-central NE, located southeast
of a stationary front that extended NE to SW through central NE.
An outflow boundary was analyzed ahead of the thunderstorms with
overrunning of an estimated 30-40 kt 850 mb low level jet in
west-central KS beneath a diffluent flow pattern aloft. The bigger
picture showed a closed mid to upper level low over WY with a
southward extending trough axis into western CO. This trough axis
is expected to advance eastward over the next 6 hours with
diffluent flow maintaining over much of NE into northern KS.

Areas of strong ascent will continue over the next several hours
across the central Plains with lingering instability of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE aiding in the maintenance of thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates. As the outflow boundary continues to advance
downstream toward the south and east, overrunning of the low level
jet atop the boundary with deeper layer mean steering flow
aligning with the boundary orientation will support areas of
training at times from SW to NE. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are
expected with additional storm totals of 2-4 inches through 08Z
which may allow for a few areas of flash flooding from northern KS
into central and eastern NE.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4vEcU5WwLldfJTdEHUbPwTFoIITQFfuXx8YiqwQ30tDiN3tcMrsg3xf-OOX5VuQ0VZio=
-JA9pwNJq-LVVTtTh6ntgoo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   42569757 42419687 42159630 41819610 41499628=20
            40939691 40089751 39199818 39270019 39600094=20
            39890116 40890035 41489958 42089867=20

=3D =3D =3D
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