Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2090
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 17 2025 01:48:31

ACUS11 KWNS 170144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170144=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Kansas into central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

Valid 170144Z - 170315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist for a few more hours, with
severe gusts/hail the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Currently, two general areas of convection continue to
show severe potential. Firstly, a line of thunderstorms has quickly
intensified across extreme northwestern KS, along the NE border, in
association with several cold pool and convective outflow boundary
mergers. These storms will continue to propagate east-southeastward
amid a buoyant airmass characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. In central
NE, an embedded bowing structure has produced some measured 50+ kt
gusts, and this potential may continue for the next hour or so as
well. However, waning buoyancy and increasing MLCINH amid
boundary-layer decoupling should gradually reduce severe potential
over the next few hours.

...Squitieri.. 09/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7gxqgmHSbvrLvP08MRWu5uEcXYDw3HvdFyUx91NCg1oKdVVQG8oPqiBn0uuXPnGD64ChDzU-D=
-KMiW_6JbIPccVrEFw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39130233 39730197 40170150 40880008 41669972 41989934
            42059879 41859831 41379814 40839823 40219854 39749882
            39429916 39179963 39030031 38980079 38950147 39130233=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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