Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2088
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 16 2025 22:32:24

ACUS11 KWNS 162232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162231=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far northwestern
Kansas...much of western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

Valid 162231Z - 170000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe hail and wind threat should persist for at
least a few more hours, especially in western to central NE.
Portions of northeastern CO are being monitored for convective
development.

DISCUSSION...A mix of multicells and supercells have become
established across portions of western NE into far northwestern KS,
with several storms having a history of severe hail (particularly
with a stationary supercell over Red Willow County, NE). Storms over
northern NE have shown outflow tendencies, though an additional
severe gust remains possible. Multicells and supercells should
persist in western to central NE with a severe hail threat, as an
ambient environment with 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of these
storms.=20

Another area of interest for witnessing a potential uptick in severe
potential is northeastern CO. Here, multiple baroclinic boundaries
are identifiable via surface observations. A boundary supporting
convection just west of the KS/CO border (where a landspout was also
reported) continues to slowly track westward. Of greater concern is
a pronounced baroclinic boundary (accompanied by ample
vertical-oriented low-level vorticity per 22Z mesoanalysis) draped
across Chase County, NE to Washington County, CO. Mid to upper 50s F
surface dewpoints reside along/immediately north of this boundary.
Meanwhile, storms are gradually increasing in intensity as they
approach this boundary, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 40-50
dBZ cores quickly exceeding 50 kft. It is plausible that northeast
CO may see an increased severe threat with any storms that favorably
interact with either of these boundaries over the next few hours.
Severe hail/wind are the main threats, though a landspout tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially along the northeast CO boundary.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66U1sfG3OOGTWoxcUxy5bnAwPFu0xzv3M9eD8X9o9abUBBgz7z-RIbunOMuiiF94b7ZRtwxy9=
BrgMoahaw4JJExxmjI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39740366 41360303 42530215 43080091 42810003 42239948
            41449954 40649974 39899999 39570018 39380049 39320098
            39340180 39450257 39740366=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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