Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2086
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 16 2025 21:47:24

ACUS11 KWNS 162147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162147=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado into far
southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162147Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger
storms that can mature, and a severe gust also cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across
southeastern CO into southwestern KS over the past 1-2 hours, with
50+ dBZ cores occasionally exceeding 30 kft per MRMS mosaic radar
imagery. These storms are developing amid a steep mid-level lapse
rate environment (e.g. 8 C/km), yielding 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Despite favorable buoyancy, vertical wind shear is relatively poor,
and forcing for ascent should remain weak as well, which should
limit the overall severe threat. Nonetheless, given steep mid-level
lapse rates, any storm that can mature and achieve at least
transient supercell structure may produce isolated instances of
severe hail and perhaps a severe gust or two.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_vWO6og8vTiHVktS1jugEDZVekhuS-qIHvOxjieBv5YunaR3dzqSYv5jPZH_xH2-DgXEypuyI=
aaL1owBcymOUDjzyvE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37420333 38070280 38250125 38150054 37680041 37270053
            37040085 36930143 36880202 36950266 37060305 37420333=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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