Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 16 2025 19:35:24

AWUS01 KWNH 161935
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-170134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland, far
southern Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161934Z - 170134Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.  Heavy rainfall will continue around the center of a
westward-moving low pressure area near the southeastern VA coast
over the next 6 hours.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across southeastern
Virginia.  Heavy rainfall continues near the center of a coastal
low (centered just east of Virginia Beach).  That low was moving
slowly westward toward mainland Virginia while spreading areas of
0.5-2 inch/hr rain rates into the discussion area.  Some of these
heavier rain rates will spread over areas that have already
experienced 2-4 inch totals today.  Flood/flash flood impacts have
already been noted near Norfolk and Virginia Beach.  Impending
rainfall (perhaps reaching 2-3 inches in spots) should exacerbate
any flooding conditions in the area and cause new instances of
flash flooding through at least 23Z/7p EDT.

An addition to the aforementioned scenario, a deep convective band
has materialized over coastal waters southeast of
Salisbury/Pocomoke City, MD on the northeastern periphery of the
coastal low.  The amount of lightning associated with this
activity suggests that mesoanalyses may not be accurately
depicting instability profiles in that region.  Surface-based
instability is expected to make it to shore and support
persistence of this band across southeastern Maryland and adjacent
parts of Virginia, with rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr for a few
hours.  Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential will also
accompany this activity through 02Z/10p EDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_3G9l2zeNRO6vY7onx6yFLgGMxhJrN7BmxQ61N_fOUf5-IqClfbv5nKCSANUXNygqHOn=
0VLHiSo1wZKqd3Hesg_XfZs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38597577 38527504 37657525 36597588 36727724=20
            37697698=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.