Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 16 2025 18:45:54

AWUS01 KWNH 161845
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona into southwest/central New
Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161845Z - 170045Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving convection initiating this
afternoon will contain the potential for localized rainfall rates
of 1.0-1.5"/hr between southeast Arizona and southwest/central New
Mexico. This may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially near
burn scars and dry washes.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and regional radar imagery across
east-central AZ into central NM highlight ongoing convection
blossoming over the last hour within an unstable environment (RAP
analysis of 1,000-1,500 J/kg SBCAPE). PWs are not anomalous and
remain under 1" outside of southern AZ/NM. The greatest factor
increasing the flash flood risk, when combined with the sufficient
instability levels, are weak mean layer westerly winds around
10-15kts. This may allow for convection tied to sensitive terrain
to remain mostly stationary for enough time with rainfall rates up
to 1.0-1.5" and lead to isolated flash flooding. Additionally,
some west-east training of cells are possible across central NM
through this evening should convection align in this orientation.

This flash flood risk, while isolated, is greatest near recent
burn scars and dry washes. Considerable flash flooding is possible
should thunderstorms directly impact the most sensitive terrain in
the region.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8PQg8iv6qvvbFsEnsBA24u0eBzMBhSYKFBVaX0HGZ2cmSNPz1PXQvzj9fT_shMhnhr2K=
wMclO_hpKeRbLd_W0B3DkEk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35040588 34870514 34360493 33030512 32140560=20
            31790645 32140746 31960886 31271054 31271139=20
            31651184 32621074 33310997 34190975 34420855=20
            34860707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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