Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 16 2025 00:51:48

ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western
South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief
tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North
Carolina in the early morning.

....SD/NE vicinity...
Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area
should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to
severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next
couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a
lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across
northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat
in this region through late evening.

....Northeast NC...
A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer
Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on
whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the
coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective
development around the cyclone, which most recently has been
wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to
the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto
land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur
during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the
low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a
brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust.

...Grams.. 09/16/2025

$$

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