Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 15 2025 05:50:38

AWUS01 KWNH 150550
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-151145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Areas affected...central to western ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150547Z - 151145Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose an
isolated risk for flash flooding for central and western ND
through 12Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected along
with 2 to 4 inch storm totals.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite showed a NW to SE elongated mid-level
low centered over western SD at 0530Z, slowly lifting north, with
embedded smaller scale vorticity maxima. These vorticity maxima
were contributing to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the ND/SD border into western ND. The environment across the
western half of ND was characterized by a small pocket of 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.6 inch PWATs (90-95th percentile) via 05Z
SPC mesoanalysis data. MUCAPE values were slightly higher with low
LPL levels below 750m AGL.

As the closed low moves north over the next 3-6 hours, a
combination of slightly colder 500 mb temperatures (locally
increased instability) and associated vorticity maxima are
expected to lead to development of additional showers and
thunderstorms over west-central ND. Deep layer mean winds beneath
the closed low were fairly weak at 10 kt or less, which will
support slow moving cores of heavy rain, with the expected
coverage of slow moving cores peaking over the next 2-5 hours. The
anomalously moist environment and slow moving cores of heavy rain
should lead to hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along with spotty
2-4 inch storm totals. These localized heavy rainfall areas may
lead to isolated flash flooding through 12Z considering 3-hr FFG
values below 2 inches in many locations.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8JvCWaV2gr9UM0b8XuReM0k0df62_TYCVZ6XJmm9C7plvOYDRWV4LMy0VRNbnWpU7ICj=
7xUBtSSW-bRr-8LwXuO11Y0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49110183 49000131 48470118 47820084 46980035=20
            46380031 46000082 45870163 46100259 46740342=20
            47770369 48830356 49050295 49070234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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