Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 15 2025 03:48:08 AWUS01 KWNH 150348 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-150715- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1147 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...TX Panhandle into western OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 150345Z - 150715Z Summary...Brief training of thunderstorms may result in 2+ inches of rain in an hour or less along with isolated flash flooding across the TX Panhandle and possibly into western OK. The threat Is expected to persist for at least a couple more hours. Discussion...KAMA reflectivity at 0330Z showed a small area of thunderstorms over the northeastern TX Panhandle into far western OK, drifting south but also backbuilding toward the west. The storms formed along a weak, retreating dryline which has moved westward to near Cannon AFD as of 03Z. A southward sinking boundary was evident via surface observations and reflectivity data, a combination of outflow and a weak cold front which has pressed south of Dalhart and Dumas since 00Z. Meanwhile, southerly 850 mb winds were increasing across West TX with RAP forecasts indicating speeds near 30 kt by 06Z. Given MLCAPE of roughly 1000-2000 J/kg over the Panhandle (00Z AMA sounding and SPC mesoanalysis) and relatively weak CIN which should continue to be overcome by overrunning of the southward sinking psuedo-cold front, thunderstorms are expected to persist for another couple of hours. Periods of backbuilding are likely to continue and with mean westerly flow aloft, some training could result. Earlier rainfall measurements over the northeastern TX Panhandle showed ~0.75 inches of rain in 15 minutes, which could result in 2+ inches of rain in an hour or less should training persist long enough over a given location. The flash flood threat should remain isolated in nature but also persist for an additional 2-4 hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7EI611l50GQRgfoignEVvvvS4WIk2IVD_VSEJ9nlW9qskEN8A8UNRQ8OWXeA1EjMwfm= rhNd9VpoGNlnXbdzr8gBrD4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36129985 35669969 35229988 35030039 34900123=20 35140190 35670199 36080140 36100054=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .