Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 15 2025 00:58:10

ACUS01 KWNS 150058
SWODY1
SPC AC 150056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

....SUMMARY...
A diminishing severe-storm threat is expected this evening across
the Great Plains.

....ND...
A prolific tornado event across central ND appears to be finally
subsiding with its parent MCV progressing into a less unstable air
mass near/north of KMOT. A broken quasi-linear convective band
arcing to the southeast will attempt to advance across remaining
portions of east-central/northeast ND, but likely weaken over the
next couple hours as the boundary layer nocturnally cools. Weaker
low-level SRH with a nearly unidirectional meridional wind profile
should limit tornado potential. 45-50 kt 850 to 700-mb southerlies
sampled by the 00Z ABR sounding could foster sporadic strong to
marginally severe gusts through about 03Z, similar to a measured
51-kt gust earlier this hour at KJMS.

....NE/KS...
A generally NNW/SSE-oriented QLCS has gradually progressed east with
a couple severe hail and strong gusts reported thus far. UEX VWP
data confirmed a near paralleling of the modest deep-layer wind
profile with the QLCS orientation. With a confined corridor of
diminishing moderate buoyancy present ahead of it, sporadic strong
to marginally severe gusts/hail may persist for another hour or so.
But overall intensity should subside during the mid to late evening.

....Eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border...
Convection may remain strong for another hour or so, with a
marginally severe gust as the primary hazard. Poor mid-level lapse
rates sampled by the 00Z AMA sounding, in conjunction with
increasing MLCIN, should yield diminishing severe potential by late
evening.

...Grams.. 09/15/2025

$$

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