Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 18:34:28

AWUS01 KWNH 141834
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141830Z - 150000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall totals as high as 3-4" in 2-3 hours
may result in isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A mid-upper level shortwave trough lifting north
across the Central High Plains is driving the organization of deep
convection over north-central SD early this afternoon, as a
strengthening area of low-level (concentrated at 850 mb) moisture
flux transport becomes better aligned with the right-entrance
region of a ~100 kt jet streak centered near eastern MT into
Saskatchewan, Canada. While lapse rates are unimpressive overall
(solidly moist adiabatic throughout the low to mid-level profile),
MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg has been sufficient with aforementioned
strong dynamics to result in efficient 1-3"/hr rainfall
accumulations (with PWs of 1.5-1.7" near record territory for
mid-Sep, closer to the max moving average of the climatological
peak during late July and early August).

Localized south-to-north training of convection within the=20
meridional flow regime will likely result in additional 2-3"
totals, and may locally exceed 3" (per 12z HREF neighborhood
probabilities of 20-40%). While USGS streamflows in the region are
generally indicated to be above normal, tributaries of the
Missouri River are well below flood stage. Therefore any  isolated
instances of flash flooding should be confined to particularly
vulnerable low-lying areas (with urbanized surfaces quite limited
in this rural area) that receive as much as 3-4" of rainfall in
2-3 hours.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-fCmDq4-APeJaEJlYRovtuTiLtGng8VvbtMLV4QfcLUK6G5NtFU72e6wosk17mLahEtj=
Lr2OIBWSgsKcEj5MdzhkIhg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49180048 49049938 47719957 46589979 45749999=20
            45440074 45750148 46950168 47760162 48730160=20
            49120120=20

=3D =3D =3D
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