Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 17:27:07 ACUS02 KWNS 141727 SWODY2 SPC AC 141725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ....Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ....Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ....North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ...Wendt.. 09/14/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .