Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 16:41:07 ACUS01 KWNS 141641 SWODY1 SPC AC 141639 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ....Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ....Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ....Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ....Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ....Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ...Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .