Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 12:42:05 ACUS01 KWNS 141242 SWODY1 SPC AC 141240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ....Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ....Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ....Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ....Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ...Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .