Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 05:39:33 ACUS01 KWNS 140539 SWODY1 SPC AC 140538 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ....Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ....Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ....Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ....Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ...Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .