Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 14 2025 04:37:19

AWUS01 KWNH 140437
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-141000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...West TX into southeastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140435Z - 141000Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible across a fairly broad region of western TX into
southeastern NM through 10Z. Cells containing periods of training
and/or slow movement will be capable of 1-2 in/hr rain rates and
isolated totals in excess of 2 to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0415Z showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM
across Roosevelt and Lea counties. Meanwhile, cell coverage was
increasing across the Trans-Pecos region of far western TX with
general movement toward the east. These thunderstorms were located
ahead of the southern portion of a shortwave trough crossing
central NM with broadly diffluent flow located aloft across the
region. In the lower levels, 850 mb wind speeds have been
increasing as noted via VAD wind data from KMAF and KLBB with
30-35 kt at 04Z, a 15-20 kt increase since 01Z. These winds have
been coincident with a surge of low level moisture advecting
northward up the Rio Grande Valley as viewed on the sfc-850 mb
layer of OSPO LPW imagery. PW anomalies were +1 to +2 standard
deviations above the mean and MLCAPE was estimated via 04Z SPC
mesoanalysis data to be 500-1000 J/kg with varying degrees of
inhibition.

Forcing ahead of the eastward advancing mid to upper-level trough
and mesoscale axes of lift/convergence at the leading edge of
ongoing convective outflow, the low level jet and terrain
influences are likely to continue scattered thunderstorms over the
next 3-6 hours. With the mean steering flow oriented generally
from the west (SW to NW), any convective line orientation matching
the steering flow will support training and potential for 1-2
in/hr rain rates. This is most likely from the TX Panhandle
southward to about I-10. Farther south across the Trans-Pecos,
scattered cells are likely to continue as they track east into the
strengthening low level jet (forecast to reach 40-45 kt by 08Z)
with brief instances of repeating and training possible.

Overall, the flash flood threat appears to be low, but a couple of
areas could see a quick 2 to 3+ inches of rain which may lead to
flash flooding depending on exactly where this occurs in relation
to locally sensitive areas across western TX.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8YI7bZIpIko-K8nRck8Z-AdO4-FwXq3Op_CU5Z_QIwsB3bSpvU5341fUzJNF8P8yW9tO=
hMqOcokc1ba4TKcR_gPKLE8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35110122 34810029 34250013 33150050 31390146=20
            30330227 29450309 28970358 29080420 29460483=20
            30100501 30940575 31650608 32190566 32680446=20
            33720340 34300252 35010211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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