Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 13 2025 16:37:30 ACUS01 KWNS 131637 SWODY1 SPC AC 131636 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ....New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ....Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ....Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ...Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .