Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 13 2025 07:56:28

ACUS48 KWNS 130756
SWOD48
SPC AC 130754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Weak mid/upper-level troughing should continue to move slowly
eastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the central
Plains and Upper Midwest from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.
Thunderstorms should develop across these regions both days as a
surface cold front likewise develops east-southeastward. While
moderate to locally strong instability may develop across the warm
sector each afternoon, mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear
are expected to remain rather modest. This should tend to limit
updraft organization and intensity to some extent, although
isolated/marginal severe potential may necessitate low severe
probabilities in later outlooks.

By late next week into the following weekend (Day 6/Thursday to Day
8/Saturday), medium-range guidance begins to diverge in its
depiction of the evolution of upper troughing across the Midwest/OH
Valley into the eastern CONUS. This lowers confidence in the
predictability of organized severe thunderstorms, but some potential
for strong thunderstorms may exist across portions of these regions
along/ahead of an advancing cold front.

...Gleason.. 09/13/2025

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