Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 13 2025 02:50:26

ACUS11 KWNS 130250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130249=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-130445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central SD into southwest ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 130249Z - 130445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and strong to locally severe
gusts will continue into late tonight.

DISCUSSION...Earlier slow-moving supercells have largely weakened
across northwest SD/southwest ND, but recent vigorous development
has been noted across southwest SD along a northeastward-moving
outflow emanating out of the northern High Plains. Additional strong
to potentially severe storms may develop along this outflow as it
impinges upon a favorable thermodynamic environment (as observed in
the 00Z BIS/ABR soundings). While ascent along the outflow may
encourage some tendency toward development of clusters or small line
segments, favorable deep-layer shear combined with weak low-level
flow may continue to favor isolated or semi-discrete cells with a
continued threat of large hail. While MLCINH will continue to
increase with time, favorable lapse rates above the stabilizing
near-surface layer will also support some potential for strong to
locally severe gusts.=20

The severe threat may continue to remain rather isolated, but watch
issuance is possible if trends support maintenance of multiple
sustained supercells or organized clusters/line segments into late
tonight.

...Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_SUYFkOnf8B_H_2dAG4apWRZDRJaKtznOtyTMCjJdXtvbv42MaOFiZikcS11_K-3915i8tuPG=
dG-ZzCE4Q3F7DEyI7o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43090282 45430394 46220400 46870179 46960058 45700028
            44990023 44380026 43670055 43250087 43090282=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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