Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 13 2025 00:27:26

AWUS01 KWNH 130027
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-130600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Southern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130030Z - 130600Z

SUMMARY...Isolated totals of 1-2" in less than 3 hours continue to
pose widely scattered incidents of flash flooding possible through
early overnight period.=20

DISCUSSION...Deep layer confluent southerly flow continues to
slowly press eastward across central CO through central NM.  While
deep south-southwesterly flow is pooling moisture out of the Sea
of Cortez through the Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental, it is
starting to angle more southwesterly and with less direct flow.
However, this may be compensated with some minor upslope flow
through the Rio Grande Valley and Southern Plains (per CIRA LPW,
Surface to 700mb layers).  However, instability is reducing along
the downstream edge into the Southern High Plains and activity
will reduce in coverage and intensity through time, but some
isolated .75"/hr and totals to near 1.5" are possible.

Along the western edge of the deep layer moisture, fading visible
imagery loops and limited surface observations suggest, westward
propagation of the upwind edge remains across SE AZ.  As the base
of the larger scale trough exists, continued upslope moist flow
will continue to support scattered to widely scattered
thunderstorms, but with solid bulk shear; updraft rotation should
concentrate moisture flux convergence to support efficient
rainfall production given 1.25-1.5" total PWats.  Rates of
1-1.25"/hr remain possible.  Deep layer steering may allow for
some of the widely scattered cells to cross tracks with earlier
rainfall tracks maintaining isolated incidents of flash flooding
into the early overnight period across SE AZ into SW NM.=20=20


Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7oBswKL6qfz7lvcDYgPxzo1mk8cnZxDpQlg7Q1ae80qYVUQ7HJAaRmxHYQt90lYi95Vl=
UsqHPJb_pu9Ho6LpNgJLEjI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35660628 35480520 34550473 32780510 31740637=20
            31690798 31230810 31170943 31151036 31281091=20
            32281059 33780957 35090788=20

=3D =3D =3D
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