Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2066
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 12 2025 19:24:54

ACUS11 KWNS 121924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121924=20
COZ000-UTZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Utah and adjacent portions of western
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121924Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing an isolated threat of hail and
damaging winds will continue through the afternoon across the area.

DISCUSSION...A narrow axis of clearing and destabilization has
developed across the area.  As a result, storms have reinvigorated
across eastern Utah ahead of a midlevel impulse swinging
north-northeastward across the southern Great Basin.  While
instability is limited (~500 J/kg MLCAPE), strong deep-layer shear
(over 50 knots per 18Z GJT sounding) and forcing for ascent are
aiding in storm organization.  Furthermore, long, straight
hodographs will favor storm splitting.  Consequently, large hail and
damaging winds may be possible from the strongest storms this
afternoon.  The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to
warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8UxgQUcN3F1AUCnkMmDAz6A7_XM1k6g5zg_hGpjM_gm3lZhsD6T10ru_sid3Fq99CmR_M7l_r=
Z8gef23Zz8dHHgSpt4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   37221013 38931024 40110983 40370934 40370892 40290870
            40020842 39040842 38270837 37240876 37080928 37221013=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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