Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2064
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 12 2025 16:18:24

ACUS11 KWNS 121618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121617=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...portions of far northeastern South Dakota and
central/northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121617Z - 121715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms across central/northern Minnesota will pose a risk
for small to severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across central Minnesota have
produced occasional reports of hail up to 1 inch. Though MLCAPE is
meager, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest there is ample MUCAPE
aloft amid steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around
30-40 kts. This will continue to support a few instances of small to
severe hail. Given the uncertainty on the duration and spatial
coverage of this threat, a watch is unlikely.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-KhTmtPeFWWv_WZEGsr8iaJxb3IF6Ik6aUDx8kDOG9QDi-lLLhJNq3o0SfhuxsMzrzamygdnA=
lpjG11LUmdN1wDHUl4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46259647 47889535 48249448 48279355 48219296 48019250
            47179222 46309236 46039247 45069606 45039720 45499759
            45849735 46259647=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.