Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 12 2025 07:31:53 ACUS03 KWNS 120731 SWODY3 SPC AC 120730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ....Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ....Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ...Wendt.. 09/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .