Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 12 2025 04:51:09 AWUS01 KWNH 120451 FFGMPD NDZ000-120930- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1250 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...northern ND Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120449Z - 120930Z SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms over northern ND may result in localized flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and localized totals of 2-4 inches are expected (locally higher possible). Some of the expected rainfall could overlap with an area of heavy rain which fell during the day on Thursday over northeastern ND. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMBX through 0430Z showed a small cluster of thunderstorms, located roughly 20-40 miles ENE of Minot, with a history of backbuilding and training. The storms were elevated in nature, located north of a stationary front which draped southeastward from southern ND, with a 25-35 kt 850 mb jet supporting overrunning and robust low level moisture transport through the northern Plains. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches over north-central and northeastern ND. In the upper levels, there was a focused area of divergence and diffluence positioned under the left exit region of a 90 kt jet max centered over UT/AZ. The RAP supports eventual veering and weakening of the low level jet between 06-09Z over the northern Plains which should help to dislodge the ongoing activity over ND and shift it toward the east. An area of MRMS-estimated 2 to 5+ inches of rain impacted portions of northeastern ND over the past 24 hours which has left soils locally more sensitive to runoff from additional rainfall. This area is located east of the ongoing thunderstorms over north-central ND. Until the storms begin to shift downstream, there will be a short term flash flood concern from backbuilding/training cells over north-central ND with eventual translation toward the east. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected (locally higher possible) which may result in localized flash flooding through 09Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pXY7uPRFq5WQC_aw0NImY3WdQunlflK3SIFAz2vQvLnkIArIua0BrfPMAb4nB7H7v-w= hONEfRZf0CyPf7oKUZozXo8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 49119947 48929771 48189779 47849922 47720044=20 47730123 47930188 48450205 48860187 49040134=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .